![]() Announcers who said “just run twice” were giving bad advice. The Seahawks’ decision to pass on second down wasn’t crazy, but a better choice would have been to pass on third down. If it’s wrong, it’s probably because of the assumption that run-run-run isn’t an option. The conclusion that run-pass-run is the best sequence is fairly robust against changes in the probability assumptions. For example, if the outcomes of a third-down pass are score: 25%, incomplete: 73%, interception: 2%, the run-pass-run strategy still scores 98.06% of the time, which is better than either of the other options. Even so, run-pass-run turns out to be the best strategy. But maybe a pass comes as less of a surprise on third down, so the outcomes of a pass might be worse. If the outcomes of a pass are still 50/49/1 on third down, then run-pass-run is a clear winner. The real kicker comes, though, when we consider the remaining option of run-pass-run. But the argument so far should establish that the Seahawks weren’t crazy to pass. Change these assumptions, and the strategic calculations are different. Now you can quibble with these probability estimates and you can argue that the Seahawks might have had time to do three run plays. The reason it comes out this way is that you’re not passing instead of running, you’re passing because passing gets you an extra play and you can still try to run twice, absent a spectacular interception play by the opponent. It’s counterintuitive that passing might be the right choice even though a running play is more likely to score. The odds of winning are a tiny bit better than if you just ran twice. So if you call the pass-run-run sequence, the game outcome probabilities are: score: 97.90%, stopped short: 1.10%, interception: 1%. Suppose that passing on second down has these results: score: 50%, incomplete: 49%, interception: 1%. If you run twice, there is a 2.25% chance you’ll get stuffed twice, so you win the game with 97.75% probability. Suppose that a run play with Marshawn Lynch scores 85% of the time, and gets stuffed at the line 15% of the time. (Passing more than once is bad strategy.) There are three play sequences they can use: run-run, pass-run-run, run-pass-run. The clock was running down, so let’s assume that if they run two running plays, the clock will expire before they can get a third play off but an incomplete pass on the first or second play will stop the clock and give them time to run a third play. It was second down, so they could run three plays. With that established, let’s make a simple model of the Seahawks’ strategic choices. They knew that was possible-and needed to take it into account-but a fair analysis of the decision can’t use the hindsight knowledge we have now. They did not know that an opposing defender would make a spectacular interception. To analyze the decision we have to put ourselves in the shoes of the Seahawks’ coaches at the time. I won’t claim it was the right call, but I do think it was reasonable. Some are calling it the worst Super Bowl play call ever. They’re young, a little immature, but they’re going to grow and provide a lot and contribute to these wins on Sundays.The conventional wisdom about last night’s Super Bowl is that the Seahawks made a game-losing mistake by running a passing play from the Patriots’ one yard line in the closing seconds. Bobby (Wagner) played as a rookie (and was) phenomenal … The list goes on and on. I started as a rookie – started my first game. “But let these guys grow into themselves. They’re going to mess up, jump offsides, get a bunch of holding (calls),” he said. “When you look at rookies, obviously there’s going to be some learning curves. Wright Show every Wednesday on Seattle Sports 710 AM with Brock and Salk, explained what he’s looking for with the Seahawks and their rookies this season.įirst off, why is playing rookies so important? Wright, who started 12 games as a rookie in 2011, is hopeful for this upcoming season. It’s something former Hawks linebacker K.J. That hasn’t been as much of the case in recent years, but it looks like the team will be getting back to that in 2022.
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